|
|
January 24, 2006
MEETING SUMMARY
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
RBC Center, 8:00 – 11:30 am Goals/Objectives
1. Review Work Plan.
2. Examine Wake County’s growth trends since 1980 and projections for growth from now to 2030.
3. Explore current and future job growth, highlighting the rationale for a smart economy, as well as strategies to remain globally competitive.
4. Develop a shared view of future growth and its associated demands.
Welcome and Opening Remarks
Fred Day, Committee Co-Chairman, welcomed the committee and reminded the group of its charge and mission. He outlined the work plan that will guide the committee over the next four months.
Wake County Demographics/Growth Trends (view entire presentation)
David Cooke, Wake County Manager, presented the county’s growth projections. The presentation spanned the past 25 years, looking at how Wake County and grown and developed over the years, and looked ahead at population projections for growth over the next 25 years. Highlights include:
- Population – Wake County’s population has grown from about 300,000 in 1980 to nearly 750,000 currently, and is projected to reach nearly 1.4 million in 2030.
- Migration – About one-third of the growth is naturally occurring (due to live births), and two-thirds is due to people moving to the county. The top sources for migration: within the state, most residents come from Durham County, followed by Johnston and Mecklenburg counties; from other states, most come from New York, followed by Virginia and Florida; and from other countries, most by far come from Mexico, followed by China and India.
- Age – Wake County is slightly younger than the country as a whole, with a median age of 34.3, compared with 36 in N.C. and 36.2 in the U.S.
- Education – On the whole, Wake County’s populace is highly educated; 49.3% of the population over 25 years old are college graduates, nearly double the state percentage of 24.6 and the country’s level of 26.9%.
- Labor Force – The number of jobs has increased by 135% from 1980 – 2005, from about 172,000 to 404,000.
- Income – Per capita income has jumped 56% since 1980, to about $30,250, and median household income has increased 18% in that time, to nearly $55,500.
- Vehicles – the number of registered vehicles in Wake County has leaped 187% since 1980, from about 226,000 to the current level of nearly 650,000.
- Students – the number of students in Wake County Public School System has grown 121%, from about 54,400 in 1980 to 120,500 now.
In summary, the county grows by an average of 68 people everyday, the school system adds more than 6,000 new students a year, an average of 32.5 houses are completed everyday (1,000 residential building permits per month) and 27 acres are converted from natural states to human-built environments every 24 hours.
Mr. Cooke concluded that much of what is in place in Wake County today was in the planning stages 10, 15 and 25 years ago, and that solid planning is needed to prepare for future growth. He noted the factors that helped Wake County grow over the last 25 years will be needed to meet future growth: long-range planning, infrastructure investment and regional cooperation and coordination.
Smarter All Around – Winning the Job Wars of the Future (view entire presentation)
Ken Atkins, Executive Director of the Wake County Economic Development Program, a program of the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce, discussed the effect of global competition on Wake County’s economic development strategies.
He described a study by Dr. Michael Porter of Harvard University called “Clusters of Innovation Initiative,” and how it led to the Research Triangle Regional Partnership’s development of an action agenda, “Staying on Top: Winning the Job Wars of the Future.” This five-year plan is aimed at creating 100,000 new jobs in the 13-county region that includes Wake County.
Goals for Wake County from 2005-09 are to:
- Create 50,000 new jobs
- Increase city, county and regional effective buying income by 25%
- Increase county and regional commercial and industrial tax base by 25%
Dr. Porter’s study included a strategic analysis of five regions: Atlanta, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Wichita and the Research Triangle. Significant research was conducted on the overall economy of each area, including employment, average wages and wage growth, cost of living and exports. Innovation output also was measured by examining
patent registration, establishment formation, venture capital investments, IPO’s, and fast growth firms.
The study concluded that there are both national and regional economic development implications. On the national level, the study concluded that:
- Each region must have a distinctive strategy
- Current economic performance does not insure future performance
- Economic regions do not follow political boundaries
- Focus on a few clusters is dangerous
- Meaningful economic changes require decades of investment
The regional implications are:
- inherited assets matter
- regional prosperity often requires substantial investment in specialized assets
- successful regional economies tend to experience rapid growth
- successful regions do not rely on chance - they build capacity for success
Mr. Atkins said eight areas have been identified as priority growth opportunities for jobs: biological agents and infectious disease, advanced medical care, analytical instruments, pervasive computing, nanoscale technologies, informatics, agricultural biotechnology and pharmaceuticals. Some of the conclusions and major points made include:
- Wake County must position and brand itself as an innovative, competitive economy world-wide.
- We have many assets that we can build on and expand to help us reach this goal; for example, the creative class of knowledge workers drawn here by our quality of life.
- Quality economic growth generates a cycle that can accomplish a higher standard of living for all Wake County residents.
- The decisions made by others before us, our investment in the community, our commitment to education, and our outstanding quality of life have resulted in a county that is clearly ‘Smarter All Around.”
The question for the Blue Ribbon Committee, Mr. Atkins said, is “What do we need to do now to assure future generations that we were truly ‘smarter all around’ in planning for their future?”
Group Discussion/Reporting Out
The committee was asked to work in small groups to answer and report back on these three questions (responses are summarized as bullets):
1. What struck you, surprised you, or got your attention the most?
- Rate of general population and student population growth
- Adding 68 people per day (average)
- 2030 students same as 1980 total population
- 2030 size same as Atlanta, Sacramento, Dallas, etc. now
- Projected growth rate less than past
- 27 acres per day converted from natural to human-built environment
- The 10 “clusters of innovations”
- Critical role of NCSU (economic development, Centennial Campus)
- Lack of intra-county cooperation
- Lack of diversity – attention and the issues related to diversity make up change
- Mass transit – lack of attention
- 49% college educated
- We may have seen the high water mark of the current (last 25-year) vision and framework
2. What did you hear that is most important for this committee to address?
- Root issue of how we finance infrastructure and the gap we create with growth
- Affordable housing and good incomes throughout the economy (education workers, fire and safety service sector, etc.)
- Develop financial plan that draws from a variety of sources to cover all infrastructure needs
- How to pay – catch up
- Maintain and improve quality of life issues
- Do we really have consensus in the committee or the community on the need for growth? Should we stimulate/control/ discourage it?
- Must address disparity between haves/have nots, size of gap and numbers of people affected
- Need to focus on organic growth/small business
- Balance between good things that come from growth and the burdens of growth (i.e., grow correctly and comfortably – air/water/open space issues)
- consolidation of services
- new and innovative development
- new and innovative land use
- mix between residential and commercial
- need to look at mass transit
- Development of clusters – how do we protect this niche?
- Match clusters with community college
- Recruitment and retention of business to support clusters (quality of life, role of incentives, education)
- new jobs filled by locals
- Education – innovation continuum (is K-12 feeding prepared students into higher education; private higher education institutions – flexible)
- How to communicate problems/opportunities
3. What can we do to help you prepare for future committee meetings?
- Info about solutions others have used (business models) sooner so committee members can gain quicker insight on possible solutions.
- Keep format, experts, response by committee
- NCSU – Institute for Emerging Issues report on how to pay
- Service sector jobs – how can these people afford to live?
- Would like to see prior planning efforts (in summary form): Durham, NC State, Raleigh (1992), Airport – and what is capacity/planning planning by individual units already in place
- Read “The World is Flat”
- Begin with the end in mind
- Prioritize what we need (don’t leave anything out)
- Methodology for how to fund it
- What’s politically do-able
- Synopsis of already adopted “plans” by Chamber and other ancillary organizations that pertain to economic development and infrastructure
- The five “pertinent questions” for the upcoming session
- Pre-distribution of materials
- Stop after each presentation
- Hear from 1980 leaders
- Demographic diversity data related to income and employment level
- Comparison of 5-year trends with 25-year trends
- Data on quality of education system (K-12)
- Comparison of Wake tax rate to others
- Are we retaining those we educate?
- What does it take to attract and retain teachers? (the best ones)
- What did our 25-year peer group do – benchmark
Next Meeting: Friday, February 24, 8 – 11:30 a.m. (continental breakfast available at 7:30 a.m.)
Note: Many committee members will be attending the Emerging Issues Forum at NC State University on February 6-7, and will make brief reports at the February 24 meeting.
|
|